PROBABILITY MODELING AND THINKING: WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM PRACTICE?

Authors

  • MAXINE PFANNKUCH The University of Auckland
  • STEPHANIE BUDGETT The University of Auckland
  • RACHEL FEWSTER The University of Auckland
  • MARIE FITCH The University of Auckland
  • SIMEON PATTENWISE The University of Auckland
  • CHRIS WILD The University of Auckland
  • ILZE ZIEDINS The University of Auckland

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52041/serj.v15i2.238

Keywords:

Statistics education research, Introductory students, Probability education, Modeling, Probability curricula, Probabilistic thinking characteristics, Structuring reality

Abstract

Because new learning technologies are enabling students to build and explore probability models, we believe that there is a need to determine the big enduring ideas that underpin probabilistic thinking and modeling. By uncovering the elements of the thinking modes of expert users of probability models we aim to provide a base for the setting of new and more relevant goals for probability education in the 21st century. We interviewed seven practitioners, whose professional lives are centered on probability modeling over a diverse range of fields including the development of probability theory. A thematic analysis approach produced four frameworks: (1) probability modeling approaches; (2) probabilistic thinking approaches to a problem; (3) a probability modeling cycle; and (4) core building blocks for probabilistic thinking and modeling. The main finding was that seeing structure and applying structure were important aspects of probability modeling. The implications of our findings for probability education are discussed.

First published November 2016 at Statistics Education Research Journal Archives

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Published

2016-11-30