PEOPLE’S INTUITIONS ABOUT RANDOMNESS AND PROBABILITY: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

Authors

  • MARIE-PAULE LECOUTRE Université de Rouen
  • KATIA ROVIRA Université de Rouen
  • BRUNO LECOUTRE Université de Rouen
  • JACQUES POITEVINEAU Université de Paris 6 et Ministère de la Culture

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52041/serj.v5i1.507

Keywords:

Statistics education research, Probability, Randomness, Bayesian Inference

Abstract

What people mean by randomness should be taken into account when teaching statistical inference. This experiment explored subjective beliefs about randomness and probability through two successive tasks. Subjects were asked to categorize 16 familiar items: 8 real items from everyday life experiences, and 8 stochastic items involving a repeatable process. Three groups of subjects differing according to their background knowledge of probability theory were compared. An important finding is that the arguments used to judge if an event is random and those to judge if it is not random appear to be of different natures. While the concept of probability has been introduced to formalize randomness, a majority of individuals appeared to consider probability as a primary concept

First published May 2006 at Statistics Education Research Journal: Archives

Downloads

Published

2006-05-29

Issue

Section

Regular Articles